Engage with progress through technology and trade!

2nd Edition My business involves assisting foreign companies with trade and investment in Russia . So I have a more than passing interest in Russia’s international relations. At times, because my office is in the provincial city of Saratov rather than in Moscow, I have perspectives on Russia that do not seem available to journalists and embassy staff based in the major cities. I’m writing about the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia because the British media seems to have closed far too quickly on a single line of enquiry that is very convenient for the government. The attempted Skripal assassination The following link to John Helmer’s Dances with Bears sums up most of the evidence made public by the police. Since the Anti-Terrorist unit took over the investigation from the local police force and Scotland Yard no new evidence has been revealed. So, let’s discuss this in terms of the detective story triad of means, opportunity and motive. Motive

There is a more up to date, better version of this at the UK Houses of Parliament. https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/12422/html/ This analysis is aimed at businesses considering what opportunities are available beyond the EU following Brexit. It uses the gravity model of trade to show that the potential of Russia as a trade partner beyond the EU is second only to the US. It shows that the UK already tends to trade above potential with English speaking countries. It trades well below potential with Russia, Indonesia and Argentina. The shortfall with Russia is such that meeting average performance is worth more than any deal in Asia. The Gravity Model of Trade ( http://www.nber.org/papers/w19285 ) is one of the more robust models in economics. It is based on the observation that levels of trade between countries depend on the size of the economies and the inverse square of the distance between them. Double the distance between a pair of countries and the potential for